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Jobs Report3 mins read
July Jobs Report: What to Expect From Today’s Labor Market Data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting 85,000 jobs added and unemployment holding at 4.2%.
The Headline Forecast: 85,000 Jobs and 4.2% Unemployment
The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release July jobs data at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect 85,000 jobs were added in July and that unemployment held steady at 4.2%.
The report follows a disappointing June reading, when the US added 57,000 jobs, below expectations of 113,000. Revisions also showed 74,000 fewer jobs in May and April combined than previously reported.
Participation Is the Key Pressure Point
Beyond the headline payroll number, labor-force participation will be closely watched. Overall participation cooled from 61.8% to 61.5% in June, while prime-age participation among 25- to 54-year-olds fell from 83.9% to 83.3%.
Economists and analysts are watching whether that decline was a one-month blip or a sign of a deeper labor-supply issue. ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud expects participation to remain low, partly because of an aging population and baby boomer retirements.
Workers Are Staying Put as Layoffs Remain Low
Recent labor-market details point to a job market where workers are holding onto roles rather than switching jobs aggressively. The quits rate remained at 2% in June, down from levels seen during the Great Resignation, and the private quits rate was unchanged at 2.2%.
Layoffs and discharges also remained relatively low at 1.1% in June, though some sectors saw upticks. ZipRecruiter economist Nicole Bachaud said rising information-sector openings alongside layoffs could signal AI-related churn rather than broad head-count reduction.
Wages, AI and Markets Add Stakes to the Release
Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, matching inflation after consumer price growth had outpaced wage growth in April and May. Moody’s Ratings executive Atsi Sheth cautioned that June’s dip in energy costs may not last if geopolitical tensions affect relief.
Markets were relatively calm ahead of the release, with futures for major US indexes pointing to a higher open shortly before 6:20 a.m. ET. JPMorgan said the report could become a “good news is bad news” moment for investors if strong hiring raises concern about a possible rate hike.