Russia’s Donbas Advance Sets Up Ukraine’s Fight for Kramatorsk and Sloviansk

Russia is grinding deeper into the Donbas, where Ukrainian troops are preparing for a costly fight over the region’s last major defensive bastions. The Donbas includes Luhansk and Donetsk; Russia has captured almost all of Luhansk, while Ukraine controls just under one-fifth of Donetsk, according to the report. Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are described as the center of Ukraine’s last major defensive belt in the region.

Business Insider reports that European intelligence representatives told WELT Russian forces could reach the outskirts of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk by early 2027. Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady offered a more cautious timeline, saying that at the current rate Donetsk would not be fully captured until the early 2030s. The key takeaway: even a slower Russian advance does not necessarily mean the front has stabilized.

The article highlights Ukraine’s reliance on drones and uncrewed ground vehicles for resupply, as Russian forces target those systems and try to disrupt troop rotations. Col. Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces said Ukrainian logistics will be decisive around Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The report also notes Russia’s local drone superiority in some sectors and the continued impact of heavy guided glide bombs on Ukrainian front-line forces.

Ukrainian commanders described a brutal fight shaped by drone attacks, small-unit movement, and exhaustion. Gady said Russia’s approach centers on gradual infiltration and attrition, arguing that cities fall through exhaustion rather than dramatic breakthroughs. The broader implication is that even if Russia captures more of the Donbas, experts cited in the report doubt that alone would guarantee serious ceasefire negotiations.